The Oscar Nominations: 2012 Predictions!

UPDATE: It’s nomination Eve in January 2012. My most recent nomination predictions are here! Look at them.

Well, it’s been a whole 3 days since the 2011 Oscars, and I’m done. Let’s give it a moment of silence, shall we? (*Think of your favorite Oscar nomination morning surprise here (e.g. John Hawkes! Or Salt for Sound Mixing!)*) On to the new year!

I thought it would be only wise to put up predictions a year in advance and see how awful, or phenomenal I can do. Here is a full list of predictions. Anything interesting?

AUGUST UPDATE: Here are my latest predictions. They’ve changed quite a bit in nearly 6 months. Only 45% of my nominations are the same.

Best Picture:

  • Albert Nobbs
  • Contagion
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
  • Hugo Cabret
  • Moneyball
  • One Day
  • The Rum Diary
  • The Tree of Life
  • Young Adult

Director:

  • David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Rodrigo García – Albert Nobbs
  • Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
  • Bruce Robinson – The Rum Diary
  • Lone Scherfig – One Day

Actor:

  • Johnny Depp – The Rum Diary
  • Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method
  • Sean Penn – The Tree of Life
  • Brad Pitt – Moneyball
  • Jim Sturgess – One Day

Actress:

  • Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
  • Anne Hathaway – One Day
  • Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
  • Charlize Theron – Young Adult
  • Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

Supporting Actor:

  • Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady
  • Michael Fassbender – A Dangerous Method
  • Jude Law – Hugo Cabret
  • Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life
  • Alan Rickman – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II

Supporting Actress:

  • Helena Bonham Carter – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
  • Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life
  • Rachel McAdams – Midnight in Paris
  • Keira Knightley – A Dangerous Method
  • Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus

Adapted Screenplay:

  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Moneyball
  • One Day
  • The Rum Diary
  • We Bought a Zoo

Original Screenplay:

  • Albert Nobbs
  • Contagion
  • Like Crazy
  • The Tree of Life
  • Young Adult

Art Direction:

  • Albert Nobbs
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
  • Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
  • The Tree of Life
  • Water for Elephants

Cinematography:

  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Jeff Cronenweth
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II – Eduardo Serra
  • The Rum Diary – Dariusz Wolski
  • The Tree of Life – Emmanuel Lubezki
  • Water for Elephants – Rodrigo Prieto

Costume Design:

  • Albert Nobbs
  • Hugo Cabret
  • My Week with Marilyn
  • Water for Elephants
  • Wuthering Heights

Film Editing:

  • Albert Nobbs
  • Contagion
  • Hugo Cabret
  • Super 8
  • The Tree of Life

Makeup:

  • Albert Nobbs
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
  • Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Original Score:

  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
  • Hugo Cabret – Howard Shore
  • One Day – Rachel Portman
  • Super 8 – Michael Giacchino
  • The Tree of Life – Alexandre Desplat

Sound Editing:

  • Cowboys & Aliens
  • Green Lantern
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
  • Super 8
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Sound Mixing:

  • Hanna
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
  • Rio
  • The Tree of Life
  • War Horse

Visual Effects:

  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
  • Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
  • Super 8
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon
  • The Tree of Life

Animated Feature (assuming there are 5):

  • The Adventures of Tintin
  • Gnomeo & Juliet
  • Kung Fu Panda 2
  • Rango
  • Rio

Some personal notes:

  • I think this year’s animation line up looks awful so Rio is getting my only pass into the real categories… and that’s a maybe.
  • I have more movies with 5 or 6 nominations than this year. This year had 5 movies with HUGE nomination counts. I really only have 3. But that’s not too weird.
  • I do think in a sentimental sweep, Harry Potter will get a bazillion nominations. I think Helena Bonham Carter and Alan Rickman have the right roles and enough love to pull off a surprise nomination.
  • Did you know a Rob Marshall film has never not been nominated for Art Direction? Did you know every Pirates of the Caribbean movie is an Oscar nominee?
  • I’m all in behind The Tree of Life. If it sucks, I’m approximately 20% wrong since I have it in all but 4 categories.
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31 Comments to “The Oscar Nominations: 2012 Predictions!”

  1. cars 2 ?

    BEST LEADING ACTOR
    Antonio Banderas – The Skin that I Inhabit
    Asa Butterfield – Hugo Cabret
    James Caan – Anyone’s Son
    George Clooney – The Descendants
    Matt Damon – Contagion
    Matt Damon – Margaret
    Johnny Depp – The Rum Diary
    Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
    Richard Dreyfuss – Lone Star Trixie
    Ralph Fiennes – Coriolanus
    Ralph Fiennes – Coronet
    Albert Finney – Quartet
    Colin Firth – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
    James Franco – The Iceman
    Morgan Freeman – Dolphin Tale
    Mel Gibson – The Beaver
    Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Live with It
    Ryan Gosling – The Ides of March
    Tom Hanks – Larry Crowne
    Ed Harris – That’s What I Am
    Dustin Hoffman – The Song of Names
    Anthony Hopkins – The Song of Names
    Terrence Howard – Winnie
    James McAvoy – The Conspirator
    Ewan McGregor – Beginners
    Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method
    Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
    Al Pacino – Mary Mother of Christ
    Sean Penn – This Must Be the Place
    Sean Penn – The Tree of Life
    Brad Pitt – Moneyball
    John C. Reilly – We Need to Talk About Kevin
    Michael Shannon – Take Shelter
    Jim Sturgess – One Day
    Jon Voight – Beyond
    Christopher Walken – Dark Horse
    Patrick Wilson – Young Adult
    William Hurt – Late Bloomers

    BEST LEADING ACTRESS
    Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
    Olympia Dukakis – Cloudburst
    Jodie Foster – The Beaver
    Brenda Fricker – Cloudburst
    Anne Hathaway – One Day
    Jennifer Hudson – Winnie
    Shirley MacLaine – Anyone’s Son
    Rooney Mara – The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
    Frances McDormand – This Must Be the Place
    Chloe Moretz – Hugo Cabret
    Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene
    Gwyneth Paltrow – Contagion
    Anna Paquin – Margaret
    Vanessa Redgrave – Anonymous
    Julia Roberts – Larry Crowne
    Saoirse Ronan – Hannah
    Maggie Smith – Quartet
    Emma Stone – The Help
    Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
    Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
    Charlize Theron – Young Adult
    Naomi Watts – J. Edgar
    Rachel Weisz – The Whistleblower
    Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn
    Robin Wright – The Conspirator

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
    Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady
    Matthew Broderick – Margaret
    George Clooney – The Ides of March
    Sacha Baron Cohen – Hugo Cabret
    Gerard Butler – Coriolanus
    Tom Courtenay – Quartet
    Benicio Del Toro – The Iceman
    Aaron Eckhart – The Rum Diary
    Michael Fassbender – A Dangerous Method
    Richard Griffiths – Hugo Cabret
    Armie Hammer – J. Edgar
    Tom Hardy – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Ides of March
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – Moneyball
    Danny Huston – The Conspirator
    Ben Kingsley – Hugo Cabret
    Kevin Kline – The Conspirator
    Jude Law – Contagion
    Jude Law – Hugo Cabret
    Christopher Lee – Hugo Cabret
    Josh Lucas – J. Edgar
    Peter O’Toole – Mary Mother of Christ
    Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life
    Michael Pitt – Hugo Cabret
    Christopher Plummer – Beginners
    •Alan Rickman – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
    Seth Rogen – Live with It
    Mark Ruffalo – Margaret
    Michael Shannon – The Iceman
    Michael Stuhlbarg – Hugo Cabret
    David Thewlis- War Horse
    Tom Wilkinson – The Conspirator
    Ray Winstone – Hugo Cabret

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Amy Adams – On the Road
    Helena Bonham Carter – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
    Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life
    Marion Cotillard – Contagion
    Marion Cotillard – Midnight in Paris
    Judi Dench – J. Edgar
    Judi Dench – My Week with Marilyn
    Ashley Judd – Dolphin Tale
    Bryce Dallas Howard – The Help
    Bryce Dallas Howard – Live with It
    Anjelica Huston – Live with It
    Anna Kendrick – Live with It
    Keira Knightley – A Dangerous Method
    Mélanie Laurent – Beginners
    Rachel McAdams – Midnight in Paris
    Emily Mortimer – Hugo Cabret
    Julia Ormond – My Week with Marilyn
    Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus
    Sissy Spacek – The Help
    Marisa Tomei – The Ides of March
    Frances de la Tour – Hugo Cabret
    Emma Watson – My Week with Marilyn
    Kate Winslet – Contagion
    Evan Rachel Wood – The Ides of March

  2. I think this list is great! But presuming that Cars 2 is good, which animated film would you bump out? I also think that Super 8 has the potential to get a Best Picture nom.

    I LOVE the Rachel McAdams and Keira Knightley nods! :)

    • So I may or may not have accidentally forgot Cars 2. And I may or may not have failed to realize that Spielberg’s The Adventures of Tintin will supposedly be ineligible. But I’ll stand by that if Pixar’s going to miss, this will be it. Cars 2 doesn’t seem to build off of any of the little good will it made from the first Cars. It looks a completely different movie. And don’t trick yourself into thinking in Cars is just a decent movie. It’s a bad Pixar movie. Accept.

      So I guess my answer is pretty easy, but Gnomeo & Juliet is definitely the weakest of those options. There’s not really an arthouse animation on my list so expect something else unknown to surprise.

  3. huge omission of Cars 2 from a lot of categories, pixar pwns oscars

  4. Alan Rickman’s been getting a lot of buzz for Best Supporting Actor lately. Some people are calling his role in the final movie, “the performance of his career”. If he doesn’t get a nomination, I’ll be very surprised. You may not like the Harry Potter movies, but you can’t deny that Rickman is phenomenal as Severus Snape and a nomination is long overdue.

  5. By the way, Cars 2 sucked… so in my opinion, I think Rango (amazing animation, interesting story) has it in the bag.

  6. Meryl Streep and Alan Rickman !!!

  7. Alan Rickman for Best Actor please.

  8. i find myself agreeing with SusanaB Alan Rickman should definitly get a nomination – he was amazing in part 2. i also think that Helena Bonham Carter should win supporting actress because when i watched part 2, the only thing i found myself thinking was ” What an AMAZING actress.”

  9. Alan Rickman Has Got To Win I Was Moved By His Performance As Snape…

  10. What about Daniel Radcliff , He should atleast be nominated for best actor , Not only for his performance in Deathly Hallows part 2 but he should have some sort of credit towards him for the outstanding job hes done throughout the whole of the Harry Potters . Hes the main reason prople fell in love with Harry Potter in the first place . Honestly think he should get nominated .

    • I have to disagree. Radcliffe’s acting is subpar when compared to his costars. Grint and Watson have grown far more than Radcliffe since the Harry Potter movie series began. In addition his acting cannot be compared to the A-list British actors who fill the screen in the Potter films. Radcliffe most certainly does not deserve an oscar.

  11. im with Charlotte on what she said

  12. Alan Rickman hasn’t even gotten an Oscars yet! His brilliant performances should at least get him one…if he doesn’t get a nomination then I will lose my faith in the Oscars forever. Period.

  13. Kirsten Dunst for “Melancholia”?

  14. And um,how about Michelle Yeoh for that new Syuu Ki biopic she’s starring in?

  15. Mejor Pelicula
     A Dangerous Method
     Albert Nobbs
     The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows II
     The Ides of March
     Iron Lady
     J. Edgar
     Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
     The Tree of Life
     War Horse
    Mejor Dirección
     A Dangerous Method
     The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
     J. Edgar
     The Tree of Life
     War Horse
    Mejor Actor
     Viggo Mortesen – A Dangerous Method
     Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
     Ryan Gosling – The Ides of March
     Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
     Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life
    Mejor Actriz
     Glen Close – Albert Nobbs
     Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon
     Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
     Krinsten Dunst – Melancholia
     Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn
    Mejor Actor de Reparto
     Michael Fassbender – A Dangerous Method
     Christopher Plummer – Begginers
     Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Ides of March
     Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady
     Sean Penn – The Tree of Life
    Mejor Actriz de Reparto
     Keira Knightley – A Dangerous Method
     Marisa Tomei – The Ides of March
     Judi Dench – J. Edgar
     Naomi Watts – J. Edgar
     Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life
    Mejor Guión Original
     Beginners
     The Iron Lady
     J. Edgar
     Melancholia
     The Tree of Life
    Mejor Guión Adaptado
     A Dangerous Method
     Albert Nobbs
     The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
     The Ides of March
     Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
    Mejor Película de Animación
     Happy Feet 2
     Kung Fu Panda 2
     Las Aventuras de Tintín
     Rio
    Mejor Fotografía
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows II
     J. Edgar
     Melancholia
     The Tree of Life
     War Horse

    Mejor Montaje
     A Dangerous Method
     The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows II
     The Tree of Life
     War Horse
    Mejor Dirección Artística
     A Dangerous Method
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows II
     Hugo Cabret
     J. Edgar
     War Horse
    Mejor Score/Banda Sonora
     The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows II
     Melancholia
     The Tree of Life
     War Horse
    Mejor Vestuario
     A Dangerous Method
     The Iron Lady
     J. Edgar
     Melancholia
     War Horse
    Mejor Maquillaje
     Albert Nobbs
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows II
     Hugo Cabret
    Mejor FX Visuales
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows II
     Hugo Cabret
     Melancholia
     Super 8
     Transformers: The Dark Side of the Moon
    Mejor Edición de Sonido
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows II
     Super 8
     Transformers: The Dark Side of the Moon
     The Tree of Life
     War Horse
    Mejor Sonido
     The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
     Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows II
     Transformers: The Dark Side of the Moon
     The Tree of Life
     War Horse

  16. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo hasn’t even been released and yet you’ve already predicted a nomination for this film? I find it strange that The Swedish version- the whole trilogy, which was very good was not nominated, and yet there was talk of Noomi Rapace being nominated for her role, until word of David Finches remake was announced. This fucking award show is a scam! a scam of epic proportions not to mention it stinks of prejudice.

    Alan Rickman should be nominated for his role in Harry Potter, and in fact, I think Harry Potter Deathly Hollows part 2 should be nominated for best picture. It would be a crime if this film was not nominated. The Harry Potter films all 8 have have made over 6 billion dollars, not only that, all 8 films were great. Daniel Radclife, Emma Watson, Rupert Grint, and the entire cast have been phenomenal. Be it not for the talents of the entire cast, as well as the writers, these films wouldn’t have lasted 8 films. Wouldn’t have made the money that it made, and wouldn’t have produced such a massive audience following. It’s time to acknowledge the shows producers, actors, and directors for the incredible body of work that they’ve produced over the span of 9 years.

    The Oscars, Emmy’s, Golden Globes, stink of back door dealings, these intuitions seem to be lacking in integrity and I for one Can’t wait for some shoddy tabloid magazine to break the “Real Story” behind these so-called prestigious award shows!

  17. Harry potter miliardi di nomination!!!! Sono fiera di te, harry!

  18. For all of you who took this as a Harry Potter discussion forum (which is great!), I just posted something specifically on the Oscar chances of HP7:2. Take a look here http://wp.me/p15Iza-6J

  19. Oh, I hope ALAN RICKMAN will be nominated for his amazing performance in Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows.
    No one could have asked for a better man to play his role as Professor Snape.

    HIS PERFORMANCE MADE MANY PEOPLE IN CINEMA VERY EMOTIONAL, ESPECIALLY ME :(

    I REALLY HOPE THIS PREDICTION OF HIM BEING NOMINATED WILL COME TRUE.

    FOR ME, 2012 WILL BE THE START OF A PERFECT NEW YEAR IF HE DOES WIN :D

  20. I think Hanna deserves more recognition. The editing and sound mixing was amazing. And the acting was pretty good as well.

  21. best leading actor:
    SEAN PENN “THIS IS MUST BE PLACE” Probabily winner is simply fantastic!!!
    RYAN GOSLING “Driver or Ides of March” “Fantastic surprise…and probabily WINNER ?”
    GARY OLDMAN “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
    MICHAEL FASSBENDER “A Dangerous Method”
    George Clooney – The Descendants

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    TOM COURTENAY THE QUARTET …perhaps THE WINNER
    CRISTOPER PLUMMER – Begginers
    VIGGO MORTENSEN “A Dangerous Method”
    NICK NOLTE THE Warriors
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Ides of March

  22. Personally:
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Nick Nolte The Warrior
    Viggo Mortensen A dangerous Method
    Cristoper Plummer – Begginers
    Tom Courtenay – Quartet THE WINNER
    Albert Brooks Driver

    BEST LEADING ACTOR
    Sean Penn – This Must Be the Place
    Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
    Albert Finney – Quartet
    Ryan Gosling – The Ides of March
    Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

  23. Drive should be nominated for best director , art direction , cinematography and Supporting actor ( albert Brooks )

  24. I think that this year it’s time for a lot of harry potter oscars because it was a really great ending for an epic saga.I think that deathly hallows part 2 is even much better then lord of the rings 3.

  25. warrior should definetly get a nomination for oscar

  26. I wish the Deathly Hallows would win at least one :(

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