Gold Diggers: The Oscar Chances of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II

On March 2nd, I made some predictions for the coming year’s Emmy nominations. I predicted that the final chapter of the Harry Potter universe would score 9 nominations. At the time, I firmly believed it. Now…

I’ve waited until the buzz died down in order to make this post to really think about what the world was seeing in this movie. One singular performance was singled out and many of the others were given consolation prizes (isn’t Ralph Fiennes jumping off the screen the most really?). And while the movie itself was universally liked, I’m not sure it was wild enough to be loved. It’s emotionally tame as far as Harry Potter standards go. It’s all horcruxes straight through. Let’s take a walk through the categories to see what it will look like.

Let’s start with some givens. Over the years, the franchise has scored a uniquely unsteady set of nominations. Of the first seven films, five were nominated for awards (number 2 and 5 missed out). Only the first had 3 nominations, the others had one or two. The franchise as a whole has never won. The only category they have scored 3 times in is Art Direction, and I would count on a fourth, and quite possibly a win for Stuart Craig and his team. There have also been 2 nominations for visual effects and that was with 3 spots in the category. With the new-and-improved jumbo-sized category, it’s going to get another nod. The sound categories also go to well-liked blockbusters so check those off the list.

And now for some question marks. While Alexandre Desplat is the oxymoronical new perennial nominee, he won’t make it for this score that is basically the John Williams one, but with 7 school years more angst and mood. Cinematography is certainly an interesting prospect, if only because I can barely think of other things to take its place. Makeup is a wildly unpredictable category, but I don’t think there really is enough craaaazy makeup, that is aging or prosthetics, to qualify (it’s mostly vfx). And to round out the below-the-line categories, it’s not “Oscar-y” enough for film editing and the costumes are the same from the first movie.

The next 5 categories are the big’uns. I doubt it will get nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. That is always a highly competitive category, doubly since any sequel is considered an adaptation, which is just preposterous, but I digress. It’s not writerly enough, especially since it’s a whole of action. Best Director for David Yates, is a slight possibility, as it very well could be a “thanks for the last four Harry Potter movies, bro” kind of nomination, but he really doesn’t have a big enough of a profile. Not with Malick, Polanski, Fincher, Payne, Cronenberg, Allen, Crowe, Reitman, Soderbergh, etc. all competing this year too.

If you would’ve asked me if Harry Potter 7B would get a best picture nomination 5 months ago – oh wait, you did! I thought it was going to get a Best Picture nomination. When thinking about academy members were struggling to fill out a list of 10, The Deathly Hallows surely would have come to mind and there it would be as nominee number 8 on the list.  With the new 5% rule, I feel it’s a lot less likely. Was it really anyone’s favorite movie? I liked it a lot, but it wasn’t even my favorite of the series, not by a long shot. Count this one out for a best picture nomination.

I also predicted two thespians to get acting nominations from this film. One seems possible, the other just foolish. Helena Bonham Carter was  is poised to get another nomination soon. She’s back in the conversation! Just not in the conversation of Harry Potter. Bellatrix Lestrange had 10 lines at most and a couple of wild cackles. It was truly a pity. Other actors who won’t get nominations include Daniel Radcliffe (too bland), Ralph Fiennes (too vfxd), Maggie Smith (too delightful), Robbie Coltrane (too nowhere).

The only shining shimmering chance of hope is Alan Rickman. A name that makes Potter fans go weak in the knees. I’m guesstimating he only has 12 minutes of screen time in the movie, but he does have actual emotions in his character arc and he is doing something. I’m afraid the part is just too small. This may sound confusing, but I think he will have an easier time winning the statue if he is nominated, than just getting nominated. For the nomination, he has to break through dozens of other actorly people, who will no doubt be giving co-lead performances in Oscar bait movies.

Rickman here is just a little too underused in his THREE scenes. The first scene is that added scene in the hall where all he does is give some silly speech about how Harry must be found then Harry steps forward and he runs away – no acting. The second is him dying in the boathouse. Sorry about that spoiler but really? There he’s just kind of dying. It’s good dying, but in the narrative arc of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II it’s unemotional at best. In the emotional arc of the series, it’s touching, but have enough crumbly old voters really watched the whole series and understand who this baritone slime ball is? His third scene is all of the “flash back” pensieve which is again, in my opinion, good not great. If Warner Bros. decides to really push for Alan Rickman, he could get it. If not, his chances are slim. I’m still going to predict him, because my tea leaves show me large spread internet campaigning Betty White style, so until more candidates come forward, he’s in.

I believe at this point Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 will get 5 nominations.

  • Best Supporting Actor – Alan Rickman
  • Art Direction
  • Sound Editing
  • Sound Mixing
  • Visual Effects
Advertisements

3 Comments to “Gold Diggers: The Oscar Chances of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II”

  1. How…how can you say Alan’s memory scenes are “good not great”? If its not great then there won’t be millions of people crying around the world watching the scene…however I do agree…Alan deserved at least a nomination. He is simply brilliant in the last movie. Enough said.

  2. Oh, just to point out, his name is David Yates not Peter….

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: