Archive for August, 2012

August 23, 2012

Oscar 2013 – End of Summer Predictions

Since I’ve been doing a lot of traveling, I haven’t seen nearly as many of the contenders as I had by the same point last year, but that’s all right since nothing is really lighting up the scene too much. Magic Mike? I saw it. It was actually pretty good. Prometheus? A bit of a non starter. Moonrise Kingdom? Unexpected serious buzz. And that’s about the end of the list. However, I know that I need to do an oscar prediction up date before the big festivals hit or else!

Here goes nothing:

Best Picture:

  • Anna Karenina
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild
  • Django Unchained
  • Les Miserables
  • The Master
  • 6. Lincoln
  • 7. Zero Dark Thirty
  • 8. Moonrise Kingdom
  • 9. The Sessions
  • 10. Argo

I’ve kept 6 out of 10 from my last prediction, swapping out The Hobbit, Gatsby, The Hunger Games and TDKR for Beasts, Zero Dark, Moonrise, and Argo. Beasts of the Southern Wild seems to be sticking around for good and I’m putting a lot of faith in Anna Karenina. Joe Wright and Keira Knightley and period work so well and Oscar should take notice. If I had to play a fool’s game right now, I’d pick The Master to win. It seems artsy enough, zeitgeisty enough, and I think it’s the only one that feels like it could win. Can anyone honestly imagine Les Miserables winning? No. And I always think Ben Affleck directed pics  are always right on the outside. Maybe this one will sneak to the inside.

Director:

  • Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
  • Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
  • Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
  • Joe Wright – Anna Karenina
  • Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild

I’ve kept 3 out of 5 from my last prediction, dropping Nolan and Luhrmann and adding Bigelow and Zeitlin. I think the love for Kathryn Bigelow from The Hurt Locker is so massive that if Zero Dark Thirty is at all good, she’ll nab another spot. I desperately wanted to make room for Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech fall out, but the talk of Les Miserables won’t be it’s directing. It never is for musicals. It’s always “Look that celebrity can sing too!”

Best Actor:

  • Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
  • John Hawkes – The Sessions
  • Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
  • Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson
  • Joaquin Phoenix – The Master

I dropped Leo for Gatsby and I changed categories for Phil and the Master. This means I had to add 2 so Joaquin and Murray stepped up to the plate. I hope Murray, Hawkes, or Jackman give Triple D a run for his money. Could he really have sewn up this race just with one production still and now a poster? It’s possible.

Best Actress:

  • Helen Hunt – The Sessions
  • Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina
  • Laura Linney – Hyde Park on Hudson
  • Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
  • Naomi Watts – The Impossible

This time around I felt like I had more contenders to choose from so I dropped Jennifer Lawrence for The Hunger Games, Amy Adams for Trouble with the Curve, and Michelle Williams in Take This Waltz for Hunt, Wallis, and Watts. The production still or poster or image of Naomi Watts in The Impossible going around just really does a lot for me. Who knows? And the buzz around little Quvenzhane is just too hard to ignore. I dropped Amy because I had to drop Clint Eastwood at some point and I didn’t see only one of them getting nominated in what appears to be a two-hander. Ditto Tommy Lee Jones and Meryl Streep.

Best Supporting Actor:

  • Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
  • Michael Fassbender – Prometheus
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
  • Jude Law – Anna Karenina
  • William H. Macy – The Sessions

I just refuse to put Matthew McConaughey in for Magic Mike. It feels like that moment already past. My line up changed a lot, dropping Cruise for Rock of Ages, Eddie Redmayne for Les Miserables, and Gary Oldman for Lawless. I think Fassbender has a shot at the nomination for an interesting performance and since I’ve moved Phil, he’s a shoe-in. I’ve heard the buzz on Macy in The Sessions is strong. As for Jude Law, his part in Anna Karenina will certainly be the showiest. And if the film is as strong as I think it could be, he’ll sneak in.

Best Supporting Actress:

  • Amy Adams – The Master
  • Annette Bening – Imogene
  • Helena Bonham Carter – Great Expectations
  • Sally Field – Lincoln
  • Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables

I don’t know what the hell is going on in this category. I strangely dropped Olivia Williams for Hyde Park on Hudson and sensibly dropped Michelle Pfeiffer in Dark Shadows and Mulligan for Gatsby to replace them with Bening, Carter, and Hathaway – the front runner. Annette Bening’s role in Imogene just seems right up Oscar’s alley, the crazy gambling addict mother. And if there’s not a better Oscar bait role than Miss Havisham, I don’t know what it is. Maybe Sally Field as Mary Todd Lincoln.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

  • Anna Karenina
  • Argo
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild
  • Life of Pi
  • The Sessions

Lincoln doesn’t seem like a movie that will be remembered for its screenplay, but count on Life of Pi to slip for Lincoln to step up.

Best Original Screenplay:

  • Amour
  • Django Unchained
  • Imogene
  • The Master
  • Moonrise Kingdom

This is always a weak category, but it feels especially weak this year. Look for weird surprises here.

Art Direction:

  • Anna Karenina
  • Django Unchained
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Les Miserables
  • Lincoln

No real thoughts. Surprise me Oscars.

Cinematography:

  • Anna Karenina
  • Django Unchained
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • The Master
  • To the Wonder

Just consider that part of the buzz surrounding The Master is the film it was shot on. Cinematography nod. Malick film?  One nomination in the bag.

Costume Design:

  • Anna Karenina
  • Django Unchained
  • Great Expecatations
  • Les Miserables
  • Mirror Mirror

This seems like a boring enough slate to be right up the academy’s alley. And here’s a weird thing, but Sharen Davis, costumer for Django Unchained, works on a lot of African American specific movies and gets nominated for them – Ray and Dreamgirls. Just a thought.

Film Editing:

  • Anna Karenina
  • The Dark Knight Rises
  • The Master
  • Les Miserables
  • Zero Dark Thirty

I’m still hurting for Lee Smith and his snub for Inception so I thin The Dark Knight Rises will fill some obligatory blockbuster slot.

Makeup:

  • Anna Karenina
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Lincoln

I can’t predict those random Il Divo nominations. I just can’t.

Original Score:

  • Anna Karenina – Dario Marianelli
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild – Dan Romer & Benh Zeitlin
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – Howard Shore
  • Moonrise Kingdom – Alexandre Desplat
  • On the Road – Gustavo Santaolalla

Fuck John Williams. I really hope my On the Road prediction comes through. I love the idea of it a lot.

Original Song:

  • Something from Frankenweenie
  • Something from The Hunger Games
  • Something from Les Miserables
  • Something from Life of Pi
  • Something from Sparkle

I just picked random movies. Doesn’t it feel entirely possible that Life of Pi has a great original song somewhere in the movie?

Sound Editing:

  • The Avengers
  • The Dark Knight Rises
  • Life of Pi
  • Prometheus
  • Zero Dark Thirty

This seems appropriately loud. And I wouldn’t count on animated film this year. The buzz on Brave is a mere memory.

Sound Mixing:

  • The Avengers
  • The Dark Knight Rises
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Les Miserables
  • Zero Dark Thirty

Musicals! Action movies!

Visual Effects:

  • The Avengers
  • The Dark Knight Rises
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
  • Life of Pi
  • Prometheus

Final thoughts:

I’m really banking a lot on Anna Karenina and Django Unchained. They seem like a good pairing to be successful movies. I think Zero Dark Thirty could really surprise and do a lot better. So could Moonrise Kingdom. And I dropped most of The Hunger Games predictions from my last time, but it is still a well-made incredibly popular blockbuster. It was just released in March. Let’s see if we remember it at the end of the year. I also have no idea what to make of Life of Pi. Do I give it lots of nominations? Technicals? A Lovely Bones-esque creative failure? And to date, both Ben Affleck movies have one supporting nomination. Who will it be? I couldn’t choose so I didn’t. Here’s to hoping Lincoln limps in and my picks in the horse race move forward!

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