Final Predictions – 2012 Oscar Nominations

So it all comes down to this. If you’ve made it this deep down into the internet, you already know what’s going on. Oscar nominations. And all of my friends know that I’m crazy enough to predict the Oscars every year, usually with horrible accuracy. But here goes, my on the record predictions with a few explanations for why. Also, my first stab at predicted winners. Yikes.

Picture:
1. Lincoln
2. Argo
3. Les Miserables
4. Zero Dark Thirty
5. Life of Pi
6. Silver Linings Playbook
7. The Master
8. Django Unchained
9. Beasts of the Southern Wild
10. Skyfall
Predicted Winner: Lincoln

I guess I’ll predict 9 best picture nominees again. Why not? The top 6 are definitely the top 6. I think The Master has enough number one votes a la The Tree of Life last year to secure it a nomination here. Ditto Django Unchained and Beasts of the Southern Wild. Skyfall would be surprising, but with that PGA nomination and that elusive Brit vote, it could just do the trick.

I’m predicting Lincoln as the winner for a number of reasons. 1) It should easily have the most nominations tomorrow morning. If something passes it, take Lincoln down a notch. 2) It feels like the film most people will be watching 10 years from now. I’m stealing this line from Kris Tapley at InContention but it does feel like the kind of movie that will be shown in high schools on slow weeks after the AP exams. 3) Everything else but Argo has a big handicap against it. Only time will tell, but I’d be happy with this winner.

Director:
• Ben Affleck
• Kathryn Bigelow
• Tom Hooper
• Ang Lee
• Steven Spielberg
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg

This is a tougher category. I’m leaving out David O. Russell cause Silver Linings Playbook has faded just a bit. Leaving off Tarantino was a bit harder. However, after I drafted all of my technical nominations and realized I was giving Les Miserables everything and Django Unchained nothing, I went with Hooper. Sorry buddy. To predict a winner here is much more difficult. If this lineup stands, there will be 4 previous winners and an actor turned director. Well, if I thought Argo could win, I’d definitely put Ben Affleck right up there. But Argo just doesn’t feel like a winner to me. So I’m sticking with Spielberg. Plus, I think he would be a fine director to have 3 wins under his belt, rather than giving 2 to Tom Hooper.

Actor:
• Bradley Cooper
• Daniel Day-Lewis
• John Hawkes
• Hugh Jackman
• Joaquin Phoenix
Predicted Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis

I did a big no-no here. I snubbed Denzel. Maybe it’s just because I didn’t like that movie a lot. But when I thought about leaving off the other 5, I just couldn’t do it. How can Helen Hunt get in for The Sessions but with John Hawkes? It makes no sense. People are bending over backwards to talk about how great Joaquin Phoenix is. People are calling Hugh Jackman’s Valijean the performance of a lifetime. Bradley Cooper is astonishing, but I guess is the only one I could see slipping. But I can’t. And Daniel Day-Lewis is completely winning this, right?

Actress:
• Jessica Chastain
• Marion Cotillard
• Jennifer Lawrence
• Naomi Watts
• Rachel Weisz
Predicted Winner: Jessica Chastain

This category is a clusterfuck if I’ve ever seen one. Chastain and Lawrence are locked and I’m picking Chastain for the win if only because she’s the lead lead in her film and not the co-lead. But what about those other three slots? The next one I put on my list was Marion Cotillard. She seems in the club, as it were, and I think people will enjoy nominating her. Naomi Watts I put on next because she seems like the representative for The Impossible. The two of them have also picked up all the right precursors along the way. For that 5th slot I had no idea what to do? Go super old? Go super young? Instead, I listened to a non-pundit. When I was talking to a friend who couldn’t tell Emanuelle Riva from J. Michael Riva, he mentioned, “Ugh. I don’t want to see The Deep Blue Sea just because Rachel Weisz is going to be nominated for an oscar for it.” Since when was The Deep Blue Sea some magical Oscar contender? But maybe it is. I’m listening.

Supporting Actor:
• Alan Arkin
• Robert DeNiro
• Leonardo DiCaprio
• Philip Seymour Hoffman
• Tommy Lee Jones
Predicted Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio

If Javier Bardem or Christoph Waltz gets in instead I’ll lost my fucking shit. That would make it the first time in Oscar history an entire line-up consists of all previous winners. So, I’m picking Leo, a non-winner, to squeeze by for a nomination and then run away with it all for the win.

Supporting Actress:
• Amy Adams
• Sally Field
• Anne Hathaway
• Helen Hunt
• Nicole Kidman
Predicted Winner: Anne Hathaway

I obviously have a screw loose with my predicted support for The Master so Amy Adams is in. Field, Hathaway, and Hunt are as locked up as you can get. And I just think the name Nicole Kidman will get her into the finals. I’m kind of hoping there’s a big upset and Ann Dowd gets in over someone like Sally Field. It will feel so gratifying.

Adapted Screenplay:
• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
Predicted Winner: Lincoln

This is the easiest category to make safe predictions. I just checked off the best picture hopefuls and put it aside. And people are praising Tony Kushner as if they’ve been fans of his since he was a fetus. It’s his to lose.

Original Screenplay:
• Amour
• Django Unchained
• The Master
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Zero Dark Thirty
Predicted Winner: Zero Dark Thirty

This has a few more permutations, but not many. It seems like Django Unchained, The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, and Zero Dark Thirty are all in. So what fills that 5th spot? I’m going with Amour if only because the Original Screenplay category is a little more foreign friendly than most.

Cinematography:
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• The Master
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty
Predicted Winner: Skyfall

I don’t really think Anna Karenina will get snubbed. I just couldn’t pick another to get snubbed. Oh, The Master you say? Well one of the big talking points about The Master is the cinematography and being projected in 70mm and all of this stuff. That’s what gets you a nomination… right?

Costume Design:
• Anna Karenina
• Les Miserables
• Lincoln
• Mirror Mirror
• A Royal Affair
Predicted winner: Anna Karenina

Do the costumes in Django look a little too… anachronistic for this award?

Film Editing:
• Argo
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty
Predicted Winner: Argo

Makeup:
• Les Miserables
• Lincoln
• Looper
Predicted Winner: Lincoln

Original Score:
• Anna Karenina
• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Lincoln
• The Master
Predicted Winner: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Original Song:
• “Learn Me Right” – Brave
• “Pi’s Lullaby” – Life of Pi
• “Skyfall” – Skyfall
• “Suddenly” – Les Miserables
• “Who Did That To You” – Django Unchained
Predicted Winner: Skyfall

Production Design:
• Anna Karenina
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Skyfall
Predicted Winner: Anna Karenina

Sound Editing:
• The Avengers
• The Dark Knight Rises
• Flight
• Life of Pi
• Skyfall
Predicted Winner: Skyfall

Sound Mixing:
• The Avengers
• The Dark Knight Rises
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Skyfall
Predicted Winner: Les Miserables

Visual Effects:
• The Avengers
• The Dark Knight Rises
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Life of Pi
• Prometheus
Predicted Winner: Life of Pi

Animated Feature:
• Brave
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• The Rabbi’s Cat
• Wreck-It Ralph
Predicted Winner: Wreck-It Ralph

Documentary:
• The Gatekeepers
• How to Survive a Plague
• Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
• Searching for Sugar Man
• This is Not a Film
Predicted Winner: The Gatekeepers

Foreign Language:
• Amour
• The Intouchables
• Kon-Tiki
• No
• A Royal Affair
Predicted Winner: Amour

So that’s 12 nominations for Lincoln, 10 for Life of Pi, and 9 for Les Miserables. That all makes sense. What I didn’t realize as I was making these nominations was how hard I was betting on The Master. I have it down for 7 nominations with only 6 each for Argo and Zero Dark Thirty. And I’m betting against Django Unchained with only 4 nominations, if it gets best picture (which I think it will). Oh brother. Let’s see how wrong I am tomorrow.

Lincoln – 12
Life of Pi – 10
Les Miserables – 9
The Master – 7
Skyfall – 7
Argo – 6
Zero Dark Thirty – 6
Silver Linings Playbook – 5
Django Unchained – 4
Anna Karenina – 3
The Avengers – 3
Beasts of the Southern Wild – 3
The Dark Knight Rises – 3
Brave – 2
The Sessions – 2
Amour – 1
The Deep Blue Sea – 1
Flight – 1
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey – 1
The Impossible – 1
Looper – 1
Mirror Mirror – 1
Moonrise Kingdom – 1
The Paperboy – 1
Prometheus – 1
A Royal Affair – 1
Rust and Bone – 1

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