The 2012 Oscar Nomination Predictions: The End of Summer Edition

In just a couple of mercifully short days, the festival circuit will start, Oscar-bait movie season will be here and I’ll never have to struggle to find something in the movie theatre until February! In order to get my final two cents in before the storm, I’m making another big ballsy set of Oscar Predictions now. I recently read something by (I think) Jeff Wells on how all of the Oscar pundits, like myself, all start predicting things to win. Then the voters will think, “Well if they’re saying it might win, we should at least be talking about it!” So they talk, the pundits hear more buzz, the talk increases and soon everyone is only talking about the same films.

I’m here to buck the system a little. I tried to stay as faithful as possible to the unseen predictions I had made in March. Of course I didn’t stay 100% faithful, but my decisions are nevertheless different and I am truly confident with a lot of my choices. I’ll give a little bit of analysis after the list, but first I want to explain how I’m going to predict Best Picture under the new system.

With the new rules, a movie needs 5% of the vote to be a #1. That means it has to be over 600 people’s favorite film. That is no easy task. So long as 5 movies get over that 5%, how ever many make it, make it. Those who don’t, well, there’s a surplus rule, and you need the #2 votes of the more popular #1 votes, but also the #2 votes of those that got nearly 0 number #1 votes, and the whole thing is a statistical nightmare. In the end, there will be anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees, with the number to only be revealed after you count up all of the names they read out in February. It’s making the pundits nuts, so what I’m going to do is list my Top 5 unranked. Then numbers 6 through 10 will be in order of likeliness to be nominated with a small break where I think the cutoff will fall. Kapiche?

Best Picture:

• The Artist
• A Dangerous Method
• The Help
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse
• 6. Albert Nobbs
• 7. Young Adult

• 8. The Rum Diary
• 9. Midnight in Paris
• 10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II

Best Director:

• David Cronenberg – A Dangerous Method
• Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
• Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
• Jason Reitman – Young Adult
• Steven Spielberg – War Horse

Best Actor:

• George Clooney – The Descendants
• Johnny Depp – The Rum Diary
• Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
• Jean Dujardin – The Artist
• Joseph Gordon-Levitt – 50/50

Best Actress:

• Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
• Viola Davis – The Help
• Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene
• Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
• Charlize Theron – Young Adult

Supporting Actor:

• Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
• Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method
• Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life
• Christopher Plummer – Beginners
• Alan Rickman – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II

Supporting Actress:

• Elle Fanning – Super 8
• Keira Knightley – A Dangerous Method
• Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus
• Andrea Riseborough – W.E.
• Octavia Spencer – The Help

Adapted Screenplay:

• Albert Nobbs
• A Dangerous Method
• The Descendants
• The Help
• War Horse

Original Screenplay:

• Like Crazy
• Martha Marcy May Marlene
• Midnight in Paris
• The Tree of Life
• Young Adult

Art Direction:

• The Artist
• A Dangerous Method
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
• War Horse
• W.E.

Cinematography:

• The Artist
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• The Rum Diary
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

Costume Design:

• Albert Nobbs
• A Dangerous Method
• My Week with Marilyn
• W.E.
• Wuthering Heights

Film Editing:

• The Artist
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• The Rum Diary
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

Makeup:

• Albert Nobbs
• J. Edgar
• Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Original Score:

• The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn – John Williams
• The Artist – Ludovic Bource
• Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Nico Muhly
• The Ides of March – Alexandre Desplat
• War Horse – John Williams

Original Song:

• “Star Spangled Man” by Alan Menken – Captain America: The First Avenger
• “Collision of Worlds” by Brad Paisley and Robbie Williams – Cars 2
• “The Living Proof” by Mary J. Blige – The Help
• Untitled Chris Cornell Song – Machine Gun Preacher
• “Think You Can Wait” – Win Win

Sound Editing:

• The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
• Source Code
• Super 8
• War Horse

Sound Mixing:

• The Artist
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• The Tree of Life
• War Horse

Visual Effects:

• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
• Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
• The Rise of the Planet of the Apes
• Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• The Tree of Life

Animated Feature:

• The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn
• Happy Feet 2
• Kung Fu Panda 2
• Rango
• Rio

Assorted Notes:

• A Brief list of movies that weren’t  at all or were barely on my radar 6 months ago: A Dangerous Method, War Horse, The Artist, W.E., The Help. Good.
• Animated movies this year are just not up to snuff. Pity.
• I gave Young Adult the exact same nomination spread Juno got. It seems logical and I love Jason Reitman.
• The Original Song category is just made up of original songs I know exist. I firmly believe “The Living Proof” will make it, and “Collision of Worlds” has a chance, but the others are mostly fillers. I know I’m the first to predict anything for Original Song so you heard it here first!
• I think J. Edgar is going to be terrible. Like Invictus terrible. There is a high possibility it will be too long, bloated, and just scenes from this man’s life. Leo will still get the nomination (like they did for Invictus) but it’s just going to be a non-starter otherwise.
• My love for The Tree of Life is undying, so I somehow managed to go down from 12 nominations to 8. Since the individual branches vote on nominations, I think they will be smart enough to reward all of the wonderful work.
• Michael Fassbender or Viggo Mortensen?
• I’m the only one with The Rum Diary really on the radar, but it was all abuzz about a year ago. I’m still interested.
• I once heard train movies did really well in Sound Editing because they have to supply the constant sound of the train chugging. This proved true when Unstoppable got a nomination. Ergo Source Code.
• Boy was I wrong about One Day. 6 nomination guesses down the drain.
• I’m most proud of my set of 2 nominations for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Cinematography and Film Editing – a very Fincher film strong set) and the 3 nominations for Madonna’s W.E. (Supp. Actress, Art Direction, Costume Design). They just seem ultra appropriate.
• My Best Picture slate seems really devoid of thriller action stuff. It’s very 2008.
• The strongest category is Supporting Actor, the weakest is Supporting Actress.

There is a short list of movies that either only have 1 nomination or are altogether absent from my predictions. I want the world to know that I do know they exist and I am shunning them for a variety of reasons.

• Carnage – Roman Polanski is officially a pariah and moreover he seems wrong for the film. Christoph Waltz has problems with the English language (see Water for Elephants). No amount of Kate Winslet will make this not seem like a stage play.
• Drive – I forgot about it while making my list. I could also say it will be too extreme/hip/wonderful for the Oscars. They might find it a little too much of an exercise in fun serious movies.
• Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – I gave it a score nomination possibly only because it suggests something about the score in the title. I have a feeling it will play very similarly to The Town or Secretariat. Very-well liked, Oscar buzzed a little, and then it may or may not go a couple places. And Stephen Daldry films are usually very musical.
• The Ides of March – I feel like it’s going to be The Ghost Writer but with more attractive people. I wanted to give Alexandre Desplat something and since he did so well with the similarly themed The Ghost Writer, I thought this would be a lovely nomination for score. Political thrillers don’t usually do well. Sorry.
• Moneyball – I had this in a lot of categories once upon a time. And then other things just became more interesting and shinier.
• Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – This is the one I’m most likely to be completely wrong about. I’m again hoping it plays too minor, but something tells me my nomination slate is going to be spoiled by this.
• We Bought a Zoo – I don’t trust Cameron Crowe. I did once, but no longer.

Screenday – Palme D’Oracle – Cannes Predicitons

I may not have caught every In Competition movie, but I caught all of the good ones (sorry Ichimei – I heard you were a snooze) So before the big reveal tonight, here is my slate of predictions inevitable winners tonight.

Palme D’Or: “Le Havre”

Following the news that the most bothersome film on the planet, “Arirang” won for Un Certain Regard, I know that the gods of Cannes (DeNiro and friends) have to spite me and choose something that I hate or haven’t seen. So I’ll go with the French bore-a-thon critics are calling a “dry” comedy.

Grand Prix: “The Tree of Life”

Supposedly Olivier Assayas, the only sane member of the jury, has got a major hard-on for The Tree of Life. I think the others will respect the movie enough to give it the Grand Prix. And now that I’m on first name terms with the director, I don’t think Terry really needs or wants it. He’s just happy living in his own little bubble.

Director: Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”

The Artist most certainly will be rewarded somewhere, so I think this will be a great moment to give rising French director their stamp of approval. He nails the flash bang style of silent movies so well that it seems like a great fit without placing too much reverence on something is a really just a feat of vision.