The Oscar season is finally in full swing and week after week more trophy hopefuls will be released to the public for bashing intense adoration. So I’ll tackle a main category and sift through some contenders and interlopers.
BEST PICTURE
Let’s start with the big kahuna, the golden enchilada – best picture. If you don’t live underneath a rock you’ve probably heard the buzz for The Social Network. It certainly does “strike the zeitgeist”, or whatever terminology you want to use that means its of the here-and-now, and it also has a cool factor going for it. Aaron Sorkin? Really cool. Justin Timerblake? Cool. Facebook? Cool.
The King’s Speech is Oscar bait if I’ve ever seen it and I couldn’t be happier. Gentle British biopics are my absolute favorite (see An Education or A Single Man). The whole ensemble including Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, and Helena Bonham Carter are supposed to be as phenomenal as the next and a biopic about a king with a stutter during WWII no less? A surefire hit.
True Grit is one of the only mostly unseen contenders and if it is the Coen Bros. typical standard of film, it will definitely get the nomination. Another outstanding cast, a surely well-written screenplay and that’s about all you need these days for a best picture nomination. Not to mention Roger Deakins… he helps.
127 Hours is my next safe bet, because Danny Boyle is now in the Oscar club and quite cool. This movie is supposed to be a little harrowing and I think it could turn out to be an edgier choice for the Academy. Again, good script, good actor, good cinematograhy = best picture nomination.
This formula, which should also include Film editing, is what will also ensure The Kids Are All Right and Inception, the Summer holdovers, for a nomination. Toy Story 3 has the epic box office, the Pixar Pedigree, and a probably safe slot for animation open in the top 10.
As my guesses get more outlandish, look to my newly found formula of Actors+Screenplay+Editing=Best Picture and when you see two weaknesses, start to worry. Onwards to Another Year (probably sans Editing) but Mike Leigh is well loved and the film has been getting great reviews.
The Fighter may not have the screenplay but certainly has the cast and the editing to push it through. While David O. Russell is extremely unlikeable, he has worked with most everyone who should push him through to a nomination.
I’ll finally go with Black Swan as my number 10 slot. It’s gotten great reviews and certainly has the cast, editing, and screenplay… it just may not have the support. But I think this might be Aronofsky’s time to claim a little bit of Oscar love.
Best Picture (In order of nomination likeliness):
Best Picture:
1. The King’s Speech
2. Inception
3. The Social Network
4. The Kids Are All Right
5. Toy Story 3
6. True Grit
7. 127 Hours
8. Another Year
9. The Fighter
10. Black Swan
11. Winter’s Bone
12. The Way Back
13. Blue Valentine
14. Hereafter
15. Made in Dagenham
16. The Town
17. How to Train Your Dragon
18. Rabbit Hole
19. Love & Other Drugs
20. Secretariat
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